How is the 2018 paper packaging and printing indus

2022-08-09
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2018 on the edge of the cliff, how can the paper packaging and printing industry chain survive

release date: Source: packaging zone editor: Yu Jia Views: 3859 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: in 2017, with the crazy rise of packaging paper, the paper packaging industry chain seemed to have a wave of foam prosperity. 8. In the three months of September and October, several major paper giants have experienced more than a dozen rounds of price rises, and the market has been booming. In a short period of time, the stock paper or paperboard accumulated by many enterprises has appreciated significantly, and the sudden sudden sudden sudden sudden profits have made large and small enterprises ecstatic

[China Packaging News] in 2017, with the crazy rise of packaging paper, the paper packaging industry chain seemed to have a wave of foam prosperity. 8. In the three months of September and October, several major paper giants have experienced more than a dozen rounds of price rises, and the market has been booming. In a short period of time, the stock paper or paperboard accumulated by many enterprises has appreciated significantly, and the sudden sudden sudden sudden sudden profits have made large and small enterprises ecstatic

however, in the absence of a boost in demand, the crazy rise in packaging paper has seriously damaged the ecology of the entire industrial chain and laid a disaster for 2018. In the coming year, the whole paper packaging industry chain will pay for this wave of madness. Perhaps, only enterprises that find a new way can safely escape from the huge vortex and speed up the improvement of the decision-making and consulting mechanism

2018 base paper may enter a bear market

2017, after the cliff fall in March, the paper price has gone up all the way, and Niuka, tile paper, white card, etc. continue to set a new record high. Nearly 6000 yuan/ton of high Watt, let everyone call crazy. Due to lukewarm market demand, there was no "paper shortage" problem under such crazy hype, but it also foreshadowed the trend of paper price in 2018

since 2011, the global commodity prices, including packaging paper, have experienced a five-year decline, but the general recovery of domestic commodities in 2016 seems to give everyone an illusion. However, according to Dr. Zhou Jintao, the "king of cycles", from the perspective of the KangBo cycle, the recovery of commodities in is only an unsustainable rebound in the commodity bear market. Because from the perspective of capacity cycle, it is currently in the middle of the decline period of annual capacity cycle. If we speculate from the past law, the low point of bulk prices is between years. In the theory of combo, the next two years will be the resonance low point of the real estate cycle, investment cycle and inventory cycle, and 2019 will be the worst time

looking at the packaging paper industry, the situation in 2018 is not optimistic. First of all, from the supply side, it takes time to digest the daily inventory in 2017, and a large number of new products are Rockwell hardness production capacity, which will make this process difficult. Secondly, from the demand side, the situation is even less optimistic. Real estate investment and railway public base investment have come to an end, and the erosion of real estate on domestic demand has begun to show. The rise of the RMB exchange rate has made exports even worse, while the rise in manufacturing costs, the disappearance of demographic dividends, and China's market economy status have made China's exports uncompetitive

therefore, for many people in the industry who intend to gamble heavily on commodities, the risk is self-evident

market analysis of paper packaging orders

as early as 2017, it was predicted that paper packaging orders might fall precipitously. In reality, this is indeed the case. In the first half of the year, for example, the output value of packaging and printing increased by only 6% when raw materials increased by% year-on-year. Then in 2018, as exports and domestic demand have not recovered, the situation is still not optimistic

the prospect of foreign trade orders is unclear: the data shows that China's total import and export volume in the first October of this year was 22.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year; Among them, the export increased by 11.7%; Imports increased by 21.5%, and the growth rate of exports was almost half that of imports. In 2018, as Europe, the United States and Japan frequently launched trade wars against Chinese goods after refusing to recognize China's market economy status, the situation will be unprecedented complex. Even if no one wants to produce clothes, shoes, hats and other products in the European, American and Japanese markets, we are completely inferior to the Southeast Asian market in terms of cost

domestic demand problems erupted intensively: not long ago, the new building jumping incident of Ou, ZTE technology director, attracted the attention of the whole society, which also reflected that China's most consumable middle class was facing problems in survival under the influence of reduced income and housing and car loans, let alone consumption. Another notable feature is that while the sales of fast-food noodles and beer are stable all over the world, the domestic market is declining year by year. In recent years, e-commerce packaging, which has done a lot in the packaging industry, has also doubled due to the rise of cartons, resulting in a large number of e-commerce packaging users abandoning paper packaging

real estate and tiegongji peaked: in the past five years, China's economy has relied entirely on real estate and tiegongji to maintain high growth in the face of sluggish consumption. However, real estate has been seriously surplus, and rigid demand has almost dried up. After a decade of crazy investment, tiegongji investment has been unable to stimulate the economy. In 2018, the market demand of steel, coal, paper, building ceramics, sanitary ware, building materials, hardware, home appliances, furniture, lighting and other industries will face major challenges

the pattern of the paper packaging industry chain may undergo profound changes

there is no doubt that throughout 2018, the paper packaging industry chain will be plagued by overcapacity and shrinking demand, and all lines are facing major strategic adjustments and the test of survival of the fittest. Fortunately, however, both the upstream paper industry and the midstream packaging and printing industry have some room for strategic adjustment

in the paper industry, whether it is leading Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying, Rongcheng, Liwen and other giants, are transforming to the whole industry chain model. One of the most successful is Shanying paper, which produces packaging paper, most of which can be digested by itself. In 2016, nine dragons invested in the construction of a giant carton factory in Taicang, and four new carton factories were built in Hubei and Hunan within one year of Rongcheng. Levin is also planning strategies. Therefore, in the coming year, the packaging paper giant will certainly accelerate the downward extension of the industrial chain

for the packaging and printing industry in the middle reaches, the gap between one advance and one retreat can be imagined. It can be said that due to the run of the upstream paper industry into the carton industry and the abandonment of downstream end customers, its inherent cake will be cut off. Fortunately, however, the new retail has brought a batch of scientific and technological achievements, which has begun to bring bursts of warmth. Packaging and printing enterprises can fully display their strength in the huge incremental market of small batch and personalized customized packaging and printing. But for some pure processing small packaging and printing enterprises, it is quite possible to be eliminated

the most unfavorable adjustment is probably the pure secondary cardboard factory. The sinking of the upstream paper mill has blocked the dream of integration between the paperboard mill and the tertiary mill. The sharp overcapacity will make the enterprises in this line run out of money

the law of historical cycles is irresistible. China missed the first adjustment opportunity in 2008. In the next year, China's paper packaging industry chain will inevitably enter a trough with the drastic adjustment of China's economy. Business owners in the industrial chain must be very careful and try to hold more cash or liquid assets. Perhaps, after 2019, new opportunities will come

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