How far the hottest American 201 can go affects ge

How far can the United States "201" go? Influence geometry

since the US International Trade Commission launched a 201 investigation on imported photovoltaic cells and modules on May 17, 2017, this pending tax measure for eight months has finally been settled, firing the first shot of Global trade protection in 2018

on January 22, 2018, US President trump confirmed that through Article 201, an additional 30% tariff will be imposed on photovoltaic cells and modules, which will be steadily reduced to 15% in the next four years, that is, the annual tax rate will be 30%, 25%, 20% and 15% respectively, and 2.5gw photovoltaic products will have exemption every year

although the tax measures are not in suspense and are better than expected to some extent, the news of the tax still caused strong dissatisfaction from China, South Korea, Mexico and other countries. China's Ministry of Commerce said that the US's harsh tax measures on photovoltaic cells and modules have over protected relevant industries in the United States, which is an abuse of trade remedy measures; The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed strong dissatisfaction with this. China will work with other WTO members to resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests; The Ministry of trade negotiations of South Korea said that it would lodge a complaint with the WTO on the implementation of additional tariffs by the United States; Mexico also said it would take legal action to protect its own interests

according to statistics, in 2017, China exported 167gw of photovoltaic modules to the United States, with an amount of US $620million; In 2016, China's exports of photovoltaic modules accounted for about 40.8% of the U.S. market, and South Korea's exports of photovoltaic cells and modules worth $1.3 billion to the U.S. automatic alarm device; Mexico exports $1.12 billion of solar panels to the United States. Faced with such a huge cake in the U.S. photovoltaic market, the "overbearing" tax collection is bound to cause a global sensation

how far can trump go on the road of trade protection

"201" refers to the section of the United States trade act of 1974, which stipulates that the United States International Trade Commission can conduct a global safeguards investigation on products imported into the United States and decide whether the increase in product imports has caused serious damage or threat of serious damage to domestic industries in the United States

the 201 investigation was triggered by the trade remedy petition submitted by suniva and Solarworld. The investigation was initiated by the U.S. International Trade Commission, and the final decision on measures was made by U.S. President trump

different from the "double anti" of the United States, this tax is aimed at the import of photovoltaic products from all countries in the world. It is self-evident that the scope, depth and distance of the impact are very destructive. The expansion of the scope of trade friction and the further construction of trade barriers will affect the orderly and healthy development of the world photovoltaic industry, hinder the development process of the photovoltaic industry and even renewable energy, and then affect the world energy reform

since trump took office, he has always adopted the energy strategy of "emphasizing fossil energy and neglecting renewable energy". Therefore, it is not surprising to impose heavy taxes on photovoltaic products worldwide. But how far will trump go on the road of trade protection due to such unfair unilateral trade restrictions

looking back on the past history, as early as 2002, George W. Bush used Article 201 to protect the U.S. steel manufacturing industry during his term of office, but it was judged by the WTO to be improper trade protection and was canceled. This time, Trump's tax measures are undoubtedly deliberately "playing with fire" knowing the results

it is difficult to control the impact of taxation. Can we get what we want by safeguarding our own interests

as one of the most important photovoltaic markets in the world, the United States plays an important role in promoting the development process of photovoltaic in the world. In 2016, the new installed capacity of the United States reached 14.7gw, accounting for about 20.13% of the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the world, second only to China

once the tax measures are implemented, the domestic photovoltaic market in the United States will bear the brunt, which will affect the development progress of the U.S. photovoltaic industry and the international competitiveness of U.S. photovoltaic enterprises

the number of ground power stations in the United States will decrease, the installed capacity will decline sharply, and the cost of photovoltaic installation will rise. At present, the United States has GW of photovoltaic installed capacity every year, and ground power stations account for a large proportion of it, and the cost of components accounts for a large proportion of the construction cost of ground power stations. Huaibei City has made efforts to promote the development proportion of ceramic aluminum new material industry. In addition, since more than 80% of solar energy devices in the United States depend on imports, the implementation of tax measures will also make the U.S. photovoltaic market in a long-term downturn. According to the prediction of relevant institutions, In the US market, the component price will be raised by 10 cents/watt in 2018, and the average selling price will rise to 42 cents/watt

the number of unemployed in the photovoltaic industry has increased, and the United States is facing both popular support and economic problems. By the end of 2016, the number of renewable energy workers in the United States had reached 777000, accounting for 8% of the global renewable energy practitioners at that time. The implementation of Taxation will cause tens of thousands of people in the United States to face unemployment. The reduction of photovoltaic power generation will also lead to multiple livelihood problems such as the increase of electricity charges and environmental pollution, which will certainly increase the instability factors in the United States. Against the backdrop of the unstable international economic situation and the weak foundation for economic recovery, the United States, as the world's largest economy, accounts for a large proportion of the world's economic level, and its limited economic development will affect the direction of the world economy

tax measures will be followed, and trading partners may jointly fight back. The trade remedy move of the United States will drive other demand countries to further follow suit, and the follow-up has already taken place. On December 19, 2017, India launched a safeguard investigation against China and Malaysia, and plans to impose a tax of 7.5% on imported components. According to past experience, the United States is vulnerable to the joint counterattack of its trading partners against the taxation of global photovoltaic products

can the high trade barriers in the United States curb China's photovoltaic development

data show that China's newly installed PV capacity in 2017 was 53.06gw, including 19.44gw of distributed PV, and the scale of the photovoltaic power generation market has expanded rapidly. As the world's largest exporter of photovoltaic products, the U.S. tax measures are bound to affect China's ability to set and display the export of heavy hammer height photovoltaic products in real time. Although the U.S. photovoltaic imports account for 80% of the total demand, only 8% are directly from China, so the impact of tax measures on China's photovoltaic development is limited

the number of photovoltaic industries in China is huge, and the production scale of photovoltaic cells, photovoltaic modules and other industrial chains has accounted for more than 50% of the world. However, due to the national policy support such as photovoltaic subsidies, and the support of projects such as distributed photovoltaic, photovoltaic poverty alleviation and leaders, China's domestic energy will not fluctuate significantly; In addition, the emerging market potential faced by China's photovoltaic enterprises is unlimited, and the export volume to Brazil, Mexico and other South American countries has increased sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 117.9% and 284.7%; At the same time, China's photovoltaic industry can take advantage of this opportunity to accelerate the upgrading of photovoltaic production capacity, force enterprises to eliminate backward production capacity, and change the unfavorable position of China's photovoltaic and other manufacturing industries in the world

photovoltaic enterprises work together to break through the cold winter of trade

the changes in the international market, in response to the U.S. tax measures, photovoltaic enterprises can only form a joint force to cope with, and get out of the cold winter of the industry caused by trade barriers as soon as possible. The first is to rely on national political forces to strive for 2.5gw exemption or to purchase American Silicon in exchange for duty-free module quotas. The second is to rely on the "the Belt and Road" to quickly explore emerging markets in South America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and other countries, and enhance the export momentum of photovoltaic products. The third is to cultivate any factory with a large amount of expenditure to cultivate the local market, enhance the innovation ability of photovoltaic technology, and bid farewell to the extensive development of China's manufacturing industry

any form of trade protectionism is a double-edged sword. As an important pillar of global energy, photovoltaic power generation should advocate free trade, oppose protectionism, and jointly build a globalized photovoltaic era and energy era