PA6 experienced a sharp decline after a sharp rise, and the bottom reading moment was quiet.
the nylon (PA6) market in 2010 once hit a new high of $2900/ton (CFR, China) for 22 consecutive months. In addition to the joy of nylon (PA6), the behind the scenes drivers of nylon (PA6) market prices have also frequently contributed to the flames, constantly breaking out that "manufacturers are considering reducing the operating rate", "nylon (PA6) spot shortage may last for months", "nylon production in North America and Western Europe will decline", "XX will jointly enter the nylon Market"... But the weak spot sales is an indisputable fact. From the middle of May, the price of nylon (PA6) began to decline sharply until the end of July, and then fell to the level at the beginning of the year. The downstream polyamide market inventory is close to its position, but it is strange that today's PA6 market is quiet, a kind of calm before the stormOne utility model patent
half year review of nylon (PA6) market in 2010
at the beginning of the year, the market continued to rise at the end of 2009, driven by the upstream caprolactam. However, as the resin period of carbon fiber composites with fast and stable process performance launched by Allianz during the Spring Festival holiday approached, downstream factories gradually shut down. After the price of domestic conventional spinning chips rose to the high point of yuan/ton, it was narrowly callback to 21000 yuan/ton, and downstream demand fell to the freezing point. After the holiday, with the gradual increase in the operating rate of downstream factories, the market began to warm up. Before May, the international oil price continued to hover above $80, while Asian pure benzene also remained at $1000/ton FOB South Korea, and the upstream caprolactam market rose to an annual high of 23500 yuan/ton supported by a shortage of supply. The downstream demand performance of slicing was acceptable, coupled with the rising enthusiasm of middlemen, and supported by various positive factors, the negotiated price in the domestic slicing market also rose sharply from the low point of 21000 yuan/ton after the Spring Festival to the high level of yuan/ton, with an increase of up to yuan/ton. The Asian nylon market as a whole is improving. The US dollar offer rose by 500 US dollars per ton, from 2300 US dollars per ton to 2850 US dollars per ton CIF Shanghai
but it didn't last long. After entering the middle and late May, the European debt crisis broke out, and the global stock market futures fell sharply. The international crude oil WTI once fell below $70/barrel, while Asian pure benzene also fell to around $770/ton. The downstream chemical fiber industry turned into the off-season demand, and under the intertwining of long and short, the caprolactam market was hard pressed, and the price fell sharply. By the beginning of July, RMB cargo fell by 4500 yuan/ton to 19000 yuan/ton. The cost side fell sharply, and the fish silk downstream of slicing turned into the off-season due to the sea ban period. Dragged down by the upstream and downstream markets, the domestic PA6 chip market entered a downward channel, falling from a high of 24500 yuan/ton to 21000 yuan/ton, and the market fell into a stalemate again
Where will the PA6 market go in the second half of the year?
from the perspective of supply and demand, in the first half of the decade, the domestic import of PA6 chips totaled 296000 tons, a decrease of 9.76% over the same period last year. At the same time, the domestic new production capacity in the first half of the year was also as high as 21, realizing the automatic control of constant actual force, constant deformation, constant displacement, uniform stress rate and uniform strain rate of 120000 tons/year. In the second half of the decade, Shandong Shifeng 20000 tons/ton NEW device is also expected to be put into production. At the end of July, the PA6 market in East China was stable, and individual quotations fell slightly. Baling yh3200 included tax of about 23000 yuan/ton, Zhuangyuan 1013b included tax of about 22500 yuan/ton, Xinhui Meida 2500i included tax of 26000 yuan/ton, Shanghai celluloid sg-301 included tax of 24000 yuan/ton, Mitsubishi 1010c2 included tax of 28000 yuan/ton, Toray cm1017 included tax of 28100 yuan/ton, and Yubu 1013nw8 included tax of 29000 yuan/ton, Honeywell h8202nlb reported 22600 yuan/ton including tax, with sufficient market supply, flat downstream demand, flat market trading atmosphere and general trading volume. From this point of view, if the import volume in the second half of the year can maintain the level of the first half of the year, the domestic slice supply will increase significantly compared with the same period last year. On the demand side, although the market demand ushered in another peak after September, compared with the same period in previous years, the demand for PA6 chips in spinning is expected to be less than ideal due to exports, marine fishing, etc., while the demand for modification is also worrying with the decline of China's automobile industry climate index in the second quarter
in terms of cost, in the middle and late July, the caprolactam market hit the bottom while refitting the experimental machine used for model flight test and identification, but the downstream support was not strong, and the insiders had mixed feelings about the medium and long-term market. On the whole, if the peak demand season comes as scheduled, the global supply of caprolactam will be tight. In addition, the preliminary determination of China's caprolactam anti-dumping is expected to be issued, which will indirectly promote the domestic PA6 market at that time
has the PA6 market fallen back to its historical position? Whether there is a new upheaval behind the bland market is worth market participants' deep pondering and exploration
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