The current round of oil price adjustment may fail

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Restricted by the rising CPI, the current round of oil price adjustment may fail

in the past two days, the 22 day change in the average price of crude oil in the three places, which is regarded as a necessary condition for domestic refined oil price adjustment, has been officially met. However, many people in the industry worry that under the current situation of rising CPI and increasing inflationary pressure, the current round of price adjustment may fail, and the profits of the two groups may also be affected

the change rate of oil prices in the three places has reached more than 4%

according to the calculation of Dongfang oil & gas, the change rate of oil prices in the three places has reached more than 4% on November 6 as the base date

however, it is doubtful whether this round of price adjustment will come as scheduled. In fact, in the middle of last month, some institutions predicted that the price would be adjusted by the end of March, but this prediction has now failed

earlier, jiangjiemin, chairman of PetroChina, said in an interview with this newspaper, "the idea of price adjustment at the end of the month is just a rumor. Personally, I don't think it is possible to adjust the price. This is because the domestic CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in February, while the national CPI control target is less than 3%. Therefore, the price adjustment may not be a good time at this time. When it will be introduced depends on the government's decision."

"the market expects that in the second quarter, the domestic C will have a better profit. In addition, the PI for the plastic recycled particle industry will exceed 3%, while the national goal is to control the annual CPI within 3%. As one of the few product oil prices that can be controlled by the country and affect CPI, there is some uncertainty in its adjustment." China Merchants Securities analyst qiuxiaofeng said

according to Zhong Jian, an oil expert, the best time to raise the oil price should be when the international oil price is still on the way to rise, "in this way, the introduction of policies can best match the public opinion environment. From this perspective, the relevant state departments may make a final decision after observing the direction of the international oil price for a few days"

refining profit will be flat or slightly loss

"after entering April, as the settlement price of domestic crude oil will rise by more than 200 yuan compared with the previous month, it is expected that this price adjustment may still be based on the premise that the refining will not lose money. Considering that the current CPI is close to the inflation control line of 3%, the amplitude adjustment may be controlled within 300 yuan." Zhong Jian said

he said that if the price was adjusted by 300 yuan, the corresponding domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel would be 8210 yuan and 7470 yuan, or an increase of 0.22-0.26 yuan/liter. After the price adjustment, the international crude oil reference price node that the domestic product oil price adopts sticky soft rubber for the appearance in contact with the sample is about US $72, which is still about US $5 less than the previous reference international oil price of US $77 in the national report on the development of this discipline, equivalent to about RMB less adjustment of the domestic product oil price

Zhong Jian said that although the domestic crude oil settlement price in April will rise by more than 200 yuan compared with the previous month, if the price is not adjusted this time, the refining profit will be flat or slightly loss

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